New Climate Journal

The COP16 Biodiversity Summit in Cali, Colombia will last for two weeks from 25th October, very shortly followed by the COP29 Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The stakes for both conferences has been raised significantly recently by shocking news that the world’s trees absorbed barely any carbon last year, and the failure of 85% of countries to submit nature-protection pledges.

The conference in Cali is the first since the groundbreaking Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework was signed in 2022, with Biodiversity summits occuring every two years. The Framework pledged to halt and reverse nature loss by 2030, including a commitment to protect 30% of the world’s land and 30% of the world’s oceans by the end of the decade, as well as a promise from developed countries to mobilise $30 billion in support of nature protection in developing countries.

These pledges, however, are reliant on countries submitting details of how they will achieve their aims, known as NBSAPs, which needed to be submitted before the start of COP16. CarbonBrief is reporting that 85% of countries have failed to meet the deadline, including 5 of the 17 ‘megadiverse’ countries, and even the host nation of COP16, Colombia. None of the six countries containing the highly biodiverse Congo basin submitted plans, as did Peru and Brazil.

The very limited progress or adherence to the Global Biodiversity Framework is likely to frustrate any pushes for more radical action at Cali. Greenpeace has warned that the target for protecting marine areas won’t be reached until 2107 at the current rate of progress, 8 decades past the 2030 target. For scientists this is simply not good enough, with many warning last week that humanity was “on the precipice” of shattering Earth’s limits, with human activity pushing us into the ‘danger zone’ for 7 out of 8 indicators of planetary safety. Many blame a lack of media attention on biodiversity as a reason for the gulf between the crisis and the action taken- the Frontiers organisation recently reported that there was up to 8 times more coverage of climate change than biodiversity loss.

The Biodiversity Summit will be closely followed by the COP29 Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The third COP in a row to be held in an authoritarian petrostate, the are very limited expectations for major breakthroughs or ambitious pledges to come from Baku. For campaigners and climate scientists, however, there is a growing sense of urgency. The Guardian reported earlier this month that trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 in 2023, the world’s hottest year on record. With earth’s natural carbon sinks generally absorbing around half of human emissions, this is incredibly worrying development that throws our ability to rely on natural carbon storage into doubt.

The shocking loss of natural carbon absorption could be temporary if droughts, wildfires and land clearance can be avoided. However, recently headlines have shown the clear links, between the survival of our ecosystems and our ability to limit global warming, with both climatic changes and biodiversity levels interacting with and depending on one another. There is therefore a greater pressure on delegates at both upcoming COP summits to find radical solutions despite major setbacks and political challenges.

“Nature has so far balanced our abuse,” commented ohan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. ‘This is coming to an end.”