A ‘scorecard’ by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) concluded that China’s new 2035 emissions targets could and should be more ambitious than current targets, to reach a ‘strong but achievable’ target of a 30% CO2 emissions cut in the next 10 years, bringing the country in line with its Paris Agreement responsibilities.
According to CREA, their scorecard “provides benchmarks for emission reductions and recommended policy targets in different sectors that could be included in China’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs),” in order to ensure the NDCs align with the Paris Agreement target of aiming to keep global emissions below 1.5 degrees and definitely below 2 degrees. Other requests by CREA include a 35% decreasr in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, and more specifically, a cut of 30% of emissions from the electricity sector and a 25% cut from the industrial sector. The organisation argues this is acheivable through a 45% cut in emissions from the steel sector and a 20% cut from the cement sector, partly through the expansion of the low-carbon steel industry.
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Many aspects of the proposed accelerations in climate action seem very acheivable for the CCP, including the increase of electric vehicle (EV) sales to 60% of total vehicle sales, a figure that is already over 50%. The total emissions from transport would only have to return to 2020 levels, although there was a notable increase in emissions from all sectors in the last 4 years following the lifting of COVID restrictions.
Emissions from building would need to decrease by at least 40% by 2025, in a more ambitious part of CREA’s calculations. This would require the retrofitting of 25% of existing buildings and the share of homes with heat pumps or other renewable energy sources reaching 40% by 2035. Afforestation and reforestation would also be required, increasing tree cover by at least 15% of China’s land surface by 2035, compared to 2025 levels.
However, the report’s authors argue that such ambitions are not just very achievable for the world’s largest emitter of greenhouses gases, but also beneficial for China’s standing on the global stage. The report emphasises the benefit for China to show its ‘commitment to multilateralism’ and become a ‘world leader’ in low-carbon technologies. However, they acknowledge that there are currently ‘no indications’ of the level of ambition in China’s next NDC, which must be made public by early 2025.
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